The Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Based on Different Parameterization Schemes of Planetary Boundary Layer     

王晨稀  应明 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2020,26(4):377-389

Based on different parameterization schemes of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the uncertainty of intensity and structure of the Super-strong Typhoon Rammasun (1409) is investigated using the WRF model (v3.4) with six PBL parameterization schemes. Results indicate that PBL uncertainty leads to the uncertainty in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, which increases with forecast time. The uncertainty in TC prediction is mainly reflected in the uncertainty in TC intensity, with significant differences in the TC intensity forecasts using various PBL schemes. The uncertainty in TC prediction is also reflected in the uncertainty in TC structures. Greater intensity is accompanied by smaller vortex width, tighter vortex structure, stronger wind in the near-surface layer and middle and lower troposphere, stronger inflow (outflow) wind at the lower (upper) levels, stronger vertical upward wind, smaller thickness of the eye wall, smaller outward extension of the eye wall, and warmer warm core at the upper levels of eye. PBL height, surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux are important factors that cause the uncertainty in TC intensity and structure. The more surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux and the lower PBL height, the faster TC development and the stronger TC intensity.  相似文献   

温度平流在沙尘暴和大风天气预报中的差异分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

孙永刚  孟雪峰  荀学义  袁慧敏  仲夏 《气象》2014,40(11):1302-1307

针对内蒙古沙尘暴天气中大气层结稳定度问题,选取了内蒙古强沙尘暴、大风(以大风为主部分地区伴有扬沙天气)两种天气过程,对冷空气活动的温度平流空间分布特征进行对比分析。分析结果表明:沙尘暴、大风天气都有较强的冷平流活动,但强冷平流的垂直分布明显不同,其对大气层结稳定度、温度垂直廓线、垂直运动分布有明显影响。沙尘暴天气强冷平流中心位于较高的700~600 hPa层次,其与近地层弱冷平流叠加,形成高低层温度平流差异,使得垂直气温直减率加大并保持这一趋势,形成有利于沙尘暴发生的深厚不稳定层结条件,在低层扰动的触发下形成干对流风暴,能量交换不稳定能量释放,使该层大气趋于中性层结即混合层,混合层是能量交换的一个平衡态;大风天气强冷平流中心位于较低的850 hPa以下层次,不利于形成不稳定层结条件。沙尘暴扬起的高度就是混合层厚度,比强冷平流中心位置高出150 hPa左右,强度达到—45×10~(-3)℃·s~(-1)以上的强冷平流中心在700~600 hPa层次时,混合层厚度可达到500 hPa以上层次,这一强度的沙尘暴天气可以影响到我国江南沿海地区。  相似文献   

新疆巴楚浅层地温变化对春季物候的影响     

阿布都克日木.阿巴司 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2014,8(6):53-55

本文利用1961-2010年巴楚0～40cm逐月平均地温资料,采用气候倾向率和累积距平气候统计方法,探讨近50a巴楚县不同深度的地温变化特征,研究巴楚县气候变化对当地农、林果业生产以及生态环境的影响。结果表明：这半世纪来,巴楚县浅层地温的年和季节平均值呈现出不同程度的上升趋势,其中40cm的年升温率和夏季的升温率最大。近10a来,巴楚县地温明显升高,浅层地温的年、季节平均或平均最高、最低等均明显高于前40a。随着巴楚县地温的上升,年极大冻土深度的下降趋势也很明显,当地冬小麦返青期和林果业的树木萌动期提前。  相似文献   

中山市一次大雾天气过程的成因诊断     

麦健华  方宇凌  饶生辉 《广东气象》2014,36(5):19-23

利用Micaps资料、NCEP再分析资料和中山市紫马岭观测站的逐时整点能见度、气温、相对湿度、风等资料,对2012年2月29日—3月3日发生在中山市的一次平流雾天气过程进行分析,结果为：（1）该次大雾过程是在下垫面温度较低、温度露点差在1℃以下,相对湿度在90％～95％,风速较小等气象条件下形成的;（2）近地面层弱辐合、中低层弱辐散的散度场配置,低层暖湿平流的增湿作用,以及逆温层的存在均为大雾的形成和维持提供了有利条件;（3）冷空气势力减弱,地面开始增温导致逆温层破坏、水汽不饱和使能见度迅速回升,大雾天气结束。  相似文献   

南海声速跃层分类及其季节变化     

王文杰  刘宇迪  亓晨  张彬 《海洋科学》2014,38(8):82-93

南海海底地势复杂,海域内跃层分布有其特殊性,研究声速跃层分布形态对海上军事活动和海洋战场建设有重要影响。利用50 a(1958~2007年)SODA(simple ocean data assimilation)月平均资料,采用垂直梯度法分别求得3种类型声速跃层的特征值。结果表明:冬季,3种类型声速跃层范围全年最小,厚度最薄,强度最弱;夏季,主跃层、双跃层范围全年最大,厚度最厚,深度大都较浅,强度最强。春秋季跃层的示性特征介于冬夏之间,秋季比春季变化明显。  相似文献   

一种三次多项式湍黏性底边界层的流场分布     

纪艳菊  刘淑波  齐震 《海洋科学》2014,38(12):120-127

本文通过假定底边界层湍黏性的三次多项式参数化形式,基于简化的Navier–Stokes方程,并利用超几何方程的性质,推导出了湍流粗糙底边界层的速度解析解。同时,得到了底边界层内其他的动力参数,如底剪应力、Ekman传输、Ekman抽吸及近底部速度分布场,从理论上讨论了均匀混合底边界层特征量分布特征。通过数值结果分析,进一步得出底边界层的总速度、亏损速度及其剪应力受平均流的角频率和地球自转影响比较大;而底边界层的动力结构对于底边界层顶部粗糙度不敏感。该涡黏性模式从理论上丰富了底边界层涡黏性的形式,为底边界层的动力系统研究提供了借鉴和理论参考。  相似文献   

Drifter-derived estimates of lateral eddy diffusivity in the World Ocean with emphasis on the Indian Ocean and problems of parameterisation     

《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2014

  相似文献   

Influence of surface forcing on near-surface and mixing layer turbulence in the tropical Indian Ocean     

《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2014

An autonomous upwardly-moving microstructure profiler was used to collect measurements of the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (ε) in the tropical Indian Ocean during a single diurnal cycle, from about 50 m depth to the sea surface. This dataset is one of only a few to resolve upper ocean ε over a diurnal cycle from below the active mixing layer up to the air–sea interface. Wind speed was weak with an average value of ~5 m s⁻¹ and the wave field was swell-dominated. Within the wind and wave affected surface layer (WWSL), ε values were on the order of 10⁻⁷–10⁻⁶ W kg⁻¹ at a depth of 0.75 m and when averaged, were almost a factor of two above classical law of the wall theory, possibly indicative of an additional source of energy from the wave field. Below this depth, ε values were closer to wall layer scaling, suggesting that the work of the Reynolds stress on the wind-induced vertical shear was the major source of turbulence within this layer. No evidence of persistent elevated near-surface ε characteristic of wave-breaking conditions was found. Profiles collected during night-time displayed relatively constant ε values at depths between the WWSL and the base of the mixing layer, characteristic of mixing by convective overturning. Within the remnant layer, depth-averaged values of ε started decaying exponentially with an e-folding time of 47 min, about 30 min after the reversal of the total surface net heat flux from oceanic loss to gain.  相似文献   

The influence of seasonal snow on soil thermal and water dynamics under different vegetation covers in a permafrost region   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Juan Chang  Gen-xu Wang  Yong-heng Gao  Yi-bo Wang 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):727-745

Seasonal snow is one of the most important influences on the development and distribution of permafrost and the hydrothermal regime in surface soil. Alpine meadow, which constitutes the main land type in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, was selected to study the influence of seasonal snow on the temperature and moisture in active soil layers under different vegetation coverage. Monitoring sites for soil moisture and temperature were constructed to observe the hydrothermal processes in active soil layers under different vegetation cover with seasonal snow cover variation for three years from 2010 to 2012. Differences in soil temperature and moisture in areas of diverse vegetation coverage with varying levels of snow cover were analyzed using active soil layer water and temperature indices. The results indicated that snow cover greatly influenced the hydrothermal dynamics of the active soil layer in alpine meadows. In the snow manipulation experiment with a snow depth greater than 15 cm, the snow cover postponed both the freeze-fall and thawrise onset times of soil temperature and moisture in alpine LC （lower vegetation coverage） meadows and of soil moisture in alpine HC （higher vegetation coverage） meadows; however, the opposite response occurred for soil temperatures of alpine HC meadows,where the entire melting period was extended by advancing the thaw-rise and delaying the freeze-fall onset time of the soil temperature. Snow cover resulted in a decreased amplitude and rate of variation in soil temperature, for both alpine HC meadows and alpine LC meadows, whereas the distinct influence of snow cover on the amplitude and rate of soil moisture variation occurred at different soil layers with different vegetation coverages. Snow cover increased the soil moisture of alpine grasslands during thawing periods. The results confirmed that the annual hydrothermal dynamics of active layers in permafrost were subject to the synergistic actions of both snow cover and vegetation coverage.  相似文献   

Fulin Subsag Palaeogene Depth Layer Sedimentary System Research and Oil-Gas Exploration     

WANG Jiao 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):593-594

  相似文献